Triple Barrel OOP Analysis #1

MP1 raise
Hero (SB) 3Bet
MP1 calls

Flop: [773]ss
Hero cbet half pot
MP1 calls

Turn: [7]
Hero bets 1/3 (sizing for river all-in)
MP1 calls

River: [A]
Hero all-in for 1/2 pot
MP1 calls

Range Analysis:
Hero's betting range on the river
Here, we assume that hero would give up his broad ay hands on the turn after villain calls the half pot bet on the flop.
We also assume that hero will check his A high hands on the turn to pot control as we already have some showdown value
AQ are the candidates for bluffing as we need to find some bluff in this spot to balance our value range [on the turn]
Hero's range consist of only value on the river


Villain's calling range on the river:
If villain knows that hero cannot be bluffing in this spot, villain should fold 100% of their range.
However, if we assume that hero will triple barrel with broadway hands: [KTs,KJs,KQs,QTs,QJs,JTs]
-now hero has 24 combos of bluff: to 61 value combos
This means that hero's value to bluff ratio is 61:24- meaning villain has around 25% equity against hero's range.
Villain's pot odd is 3:1 where villain is getting the exact equity to call against our range.
Villain's should be defending 75% of his range.
Currently, villain's range consist of 64 combos
-villain needs to defend with 48 combos
therefore: villain needs to let go of 16 of their worst combos...
-villain should let go of 22-44 as their bluff catchers.
The blockers do not play here as there are no bluffs that hero can have besides broadway hands- in which villain does not contain in his range


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