River Calldown OOP Analysis #2

UTG+1 raises
hero calls HJ [KJo]
BU, SB and BB calls

Flop: [KT3]rb

UTG1 bet 1/4
hero calls
all fold

Turn: [5c] (backdoor FD)
UTG1 bet half pot

hero calls

River: [9h]
UTG1 bet 2/3
hero calls

Range analysis:
Villain's range on the flop:

Here as he bets 1/4, we assume that his range consists of many middle type hands that want project [Tx] as well as underpairs]

Villain's range on the turn:
Here villain is representing a very strong range, as villain bets into 3 people on the flop.
His only bluffs are OESD which is 4 combos of [QJs]
His value range consists of top pairs, 2 pairs and sets: 44 combos
vs this range we should be only be defending 9% of our range-> we are folding 91% of our range in this scenario.
This means we are folding all of our hands except the nuts and two pairs. Even top pair we have to fold. 

Villain's range on the river:
Since river completes his only bluff [QJs], villain now has a 100% value range, meaning we have to fold our entire range except the nuts!


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