River Calldown IP Analysis #2

Hero raise from HJ [KTs]
BU and BB calls

Flop: [K62]ss
BB checks
Hero cbet 1/2
BB calls

Turn: [6h]
BB checks
Hero checks

River: [Ad]
BB leads for 2/3
Hero calls

Range analysis:
Villain's range on flop and turn:

As hero checks the turn, villain's turn range the flop range is exactly the same.
It consists of mainly top pairs, second pair, third pair and FD
We assume that since the board is wet, villain would be fast playing his sets and two pairs on the flop, thus removing that value part from villain's range

Villain's range on the river:
Villain's range on the river is very polarized: trips and busted FD
His value range consists of: 30 combos
His bluffing range consist of: 45 combos
Villain is betting 2/3, this means his value to bluff ratio must be 66:33
Here it is 30:45 therefore we should always call 100%

However, the assumption that villain will shove every missed FD is invalid. Most of the population are not bluffing enough in this spot, therefore his donk shove should be seen as very strong and therefore we have to fold

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